Here is the first edition of Jim D’s NFL Picks. My picks will be a combo of statistical analysis, just my gut feeling, and just my feeling towards a certain team. I plan on doing this every week so if you for any reason you want to know my Picks come back every week and check em’ out.
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
The Bills have been a story so far this season. They are the classic crappy team turned good. I still think they may not be the amazing team people think they are. I mean they lost to the Bungles last week. They have had one of the best offenses in the league scoring 33.2 PPG (4th) 391.5 YPG (9th). Their defense has not looked as good giving up 24 PPG (16th) and 405YPG (27th). On the other side of this game the Eagles are the exact opposite story a “Dream Team” that has been more of a nightmare. Their offense is not the problem as they are scoring 25.2 PPG (10th) with 434.8 YPG (4th). The defense which was supposed to be a amzing thing to watch with all the free agents the signed has been anything but. They have allowed 25.2 PPG (25th) & 357.2 YPG (16th), and are the 31st-ranked team in turnover margin. I see this happening , the Eagles defense finally clicks and shuts down (sort of) this high powerd Bills offense while the Bills Defense plays like they have all year and lets the Eagles offense score upwards of 30 points.
My Pick: Eagles 31 Bills 21
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
I don’t know if you’ve noticed yet, but Cam Newton looks pretty good. He ranks 3rd in the league with 1386 Yds through the first 4 games, yet only 5 tds along with 5 ints. He has showed he can get it done on his feet too with 133 yds on 33 carries for 4 TDs. The New Orleans Saints have one of the best offenses in the league averaging 440 YPG (2nd). Their defense has been in the middle giving up 348 YPG (15th). I see this game being a high scoring affair as both teams have looked good on offense and average, at best, on defense. I can see the Cam Newton led panthers upsetting a good team sometime this year just not this week.
My Pick: Saints 28 Panthers 24
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
This game is going to be all about the ground game. The Raiders have no pass offense while having the best run game in the NFL going for 178.8 RYPG . The Texans mean while have the 4th ranked rushing going for 148.5 RYPG, and will be without their star WR Andre Johnson. This is a tough one to pick, but I’ll throw in a little bit of my pettiness with this one (I’m still mad the Texans beat my Steelers), and I’ll take the Raiders
My Pick: Raiders 24 Texans 20
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
This is a Crap game of the week. Both teams had alot of aspirations this year until they lost important parts of their team, Colts lost Manning, Melvin Bullitt, and Gary Brackett while the Chiefs have lost Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry. Anyways neither of these teams are going anywhere, but hey one of them has got to win. Lets just go rith the Colts to get their first win as they have scored an average 0f 15.8 PPG to the Chiefs 12.2 PPG.
My Pick: Colts 16 Chiefs 10
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
This is the weeks battle of rookie quarterbacks. Blaine Gabbert vs Andy Dalton, while neither of those two has looked great Dalton has been the better of the two. With the Bengals have the top ranked defense giving up only 275.5 YPG, and the Jaguars having the 31st ranked offense on getting 264.2 YPG this pick is easy for me.
My Pick: Bengals 24 Jaguars 10
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings sit at 0-4 while the Cardinals sit at 1-3. However each team still has one superstar player that can take the game under control at a point in the game. I, of course, am talking about Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson, but so far neither of them has been able to keep their teams from sucking single handidly. This game will depend on which former Eagles QB Kolb or McNabb sucks the least. I’ll go with the Cardinals because the Vikings pass defense hasn’t been the best, and like I said Fitzgerald can go Beast mode at any point.
My Pick: Cardinals 31 Vikings 27
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
This one is simple the Seahawks are the worst team in the league in my eyes, they’ll lose. Only way they win is a total failure of Eli Manning.
My Pick: Giants 27 Seahawks 13
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is another simple one, for me at least. Its hard for me to ever pick against the Steelers even if it seems like everyone else thinks they’re done. It will be close as I’m not sure I ever seen a Steelers game where I wasn’t worried the entire game.
My Pick: Steelers 17 Titans 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
This game should be a good one to watch as both teams are 3-1, and both have looked good so far. Both of their offenses have looked average at best, but if you compare QBs I think Josh Freeman gives the Bucs a big advantage over the Alex Smith led 49ers. Offenses aren’t the only people on the field even if Goodell is trying to make it that way, and if you compare the defense the 49ers have the edge if only by a little. The 49ers have allowed only 18.8 PPG and 358 YPG, compared to the Bucs 19.2 PPG 368 YPG. These teams are pretty evenly matched, so I’ll go with the team I like more…
My Pick: Buccaneers 21 49ers 20
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
The Broncos aren’t a very good team, thats a simple analogy right. I don’t think that their QB Kyle Orton has the “it” factor that it takes to be a superstar in the NFL. The Chargers are a good team they have a Great QB in Rivers and just an all around good team.
My Pick: Chargers 24 Broncos 17
New York Jets at New England Patriots
This is the case of a Great offense versus a great defense. The Patriots the best offense in the league scoring 33.8 PPG, averaging 507.5 YPG, and 384.8 Passing YPG. That’s pretty impressive, but the Jets have a pretty good defense allowing only 23.8 ppg, 310.8 YPG, and only 180.2 Passing YPG thats second best in the league. So who will prevail here, the great passing Offense, or the great pass defense. Well I think this’ll be a close one, but since the Patriots are the home team so they should be able to pull this one out.
My Pick: Patriots 24 Jets 17
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
I simply don’t like the Packers, because the stole the Lombardi trophy from my team. I think this could be the first loss of the Packers season. It seems like a perfect storm, The Packers may have one of the best offenses in the league but I think the Falcons have a good enough defense to slow them down. Along with those factors the Falcons have Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White against the Packers passing defense which as been the second worse in the NFL giving up 335.8 passing YPG. In a Dome I see no other outcome of this game than a shootout.
My Pick: Falcons 42 Packers 38
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions have had 2 pretty emotional games over the last 2 weeks. Having to come from behind by huge margins to win. Every time a Team plays like that you gotta worry if they will be able to come out again and do it. They’ll have to put emotion into this one seeing that it is nationally telivised, and I don’t think they’ll have a problem doing it with the Best WR in the game Calvin Johnson and a great up and coming QB Matt Stafford. The Bears just haven’t looked like the team they did last year so far but hey they were good last year and they’ve got almost the same players so they could turn it around any time.
My Pick: Lions 33 Bears 17